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Vladimir Doroga is a professor of International Relations and a world-renowned expert on Central Asia. His article, “The Russian-Chinese silk road: from mutual dependence to strategic rivalry”, published in the journal Contention, helped develop the field of Eurasian studies. In his text he argues that Russia and China embarked on shared economic endeavors as their relations cooled over time. He claims that Russia’s lack of international prestige would have limited its ability to compete with China had it not been for Central Asian states enabling trade through the construction of highways across their terrain. His data puts Russia as a net receiver of investment from Central Asian states. China’s investment has inundated the area, and while this has enabled economical growth, it also means that Russia is not receiving its fair share of investments. He mentions that China’s economic gains through the construction of roads across Central Asia is “geopolitical symbolism at its height.” Doroga claims that China is working on a transportation corridor so extensive, the only comparison would be the Trans-Siberian Railroad project that had helped fuel Russia’s economic development in the late 19th century. He cites China’s OBOR initiative (One Belt One Road) which had already poured $1 trillion into infrastructure development in sixty countries. This would threaten Russia’s hold on Central Asia which it relies on for its economic development. Doroga states that Russia is dependent on Central Asian oil, and that China is relying solely on Russian transit to import Central Asian energy resources. “A shift in the status quo would mean a shift in the balance of interests of the two countries.” The increase in Chinese economic might has enabled it to take an aggressive stance which Russia must respond to, or else risk being marginalized by its southern neighbor. He argues that China tends to forget its history which has shown that using harsh methods against minorities, especially ones who are historically antagonistic towards China, backfires. He posits that this has been apparent in Russia’s handling of Chechnya and in China’s handling of Tibet. The difference between the two countries is that Russia has a history of being a multi-ethnic state, whereas China absolutely refuses to accept any status other than being the head of the Chinese “tribe.” Russia’s acceptance of its multi-ethnic character has allowed it to retain large amounts of land in Central Asia when Soviet control had disintegrated. Russia’s policies have kept a lid on Islamic radicalism which could have led to a repeat of the Taliban or Islamic State influence in these regions if it weren’t for Russian prodding. He believes that Russia’s prodding will inevitably lead to a deterioration of diplomatic relations with China. Siberian oil has played a significant role in the state of Russia’s economy, but that role is being threatened by Chinese economic dominance in Central Asia. The author elaborates on the fact that the increase in Central Asian oil production has meant an increase in revenue for China, but not for Russia. “Russia's main source of income now comes from hydrocarbons, which are also located in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan—all very close to their borders. But since China consumes so much energy, it gets at least as much benefit from the greater volume of its investments or exports. cfa1e77820
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